After re-reading the full thread plus ATLAS / Argus / FX-alpha / crypto-alpha / Providence memories, the prelim concludes the load-bearing architectural decision should be reversed: ATLAS is not the full pipeline; it is the verification + orchestration node within a federation that already exists. The alpha portfolios are the production system. ATLAS becomes the rigour layer.
Below: the load-bearing decision (section 1), then 4 tripwire-critical tasks (section 2), 5 post-tripwire tasks (section 3), 3 long-horizon tasks (section 4), 1 tripwire reframe (section 5), 1 CLAUDE.md alignment (section 6), and 3 uncertainty resolutions (section 7).
Section 1 is load-bearing. Every subsequent decision is conditional on it. If you reject section 1, the rest collapses back to the previous Path B plan.
Eight months of ATLAS build has produced zero verified edges. RBF was overfit (Sharpe 3.18 → OOS 0.60). Phase D returned 0/1525 passed. SMA-4 ports show 0.31-0.46 vs upstream 2.42-3.19.
The alpha portfolios already work. btc_alpha_portfolio, eth_alpha_portfolio, btc_alpha_spot etc. run live with real money. They contain multiple Sharpe-1.0+ strategies with documented track records.
The reframe. Stop trying to make ATLAS reproduce what the alpha portfolios already do. Make ATLAS the verification spine that decides what graduates to those production deployments. ATLAS does less, more honestly.
Critical path to tripwire. Pick one upstream strategy with high trade count (a3_btc_lead_lag, n=160+, Sharpe 1.46), build a parity harness around it, verify ATLAS reproduces upstream metrics within tolerance, publish methodology under Providence brand. ~3-5 days. Meets the tripwire.
8 experiments on major FX pairs across H1/H4/D timeframes with TA + ML + macro + sentiment. 0 passed Sharpe > 0.5 gate. ATLAS Phase 3 then ported FX hypothesis checkers anyway. The same approach is being re-tested with predictably similar results — the 7-gaps-why-strategies-fail memory and the matrix scanner inherit this dead-end.
BTC SMA-4: Sharpe 3.19, return 1693-2843%. ETH SMA-4: Sharpe 2.42, 271%. BTC lead-lag: Sharpe 1.46, 462%, 160+ trades. These are documented track records on funded multi-exchange deployments. ATLAS's parallel re-implementation has been chasing them for weeks with worse fidelity.
ATLAS doesn't run trades at all — not paper, not live. ATLAS verifies, decides, and dispatches verdicts to the alpha portfolios. The existing risk_manager + circuit_breaker in each portfolio handles execution. Removes the entire scanner / paper_trade / live_execution stack from ATLAS. Smaller, clearer system. This is what section 1's reversal commits to.
If the tripwire is missed, the documented intervention is "pivot harder toward Path 3 (artefact-only, lab-hire endgame)" — the income-via-alpha timeline slips. The fastest credible path to ONE verified edge is to confirm an existing one from the alpha portfolios, not to discover a new one in ATLAS.
Each decision below: YES approves, MODIFY with notes, NO rejects. Auto-saves. Submit at the bottom.
Once submitted, Claude reads your responses and starts executing what you approved. You can still come back and edit; rerunning manually after edits is on you.